Preliminary analysis prepared independently by House Strategies Group LLC from public data. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the City of Boston. Figures illustrate analytical approach and are subject to revision with primary data. Not a procurement-disparity finding.

Module 5 · Methodology & legal framework

How it was built, and where the line is

This page is the honesty layer. It explains the index in plain language, names every source, states the limits of public data, and sets out the constitutional standard a defensible disparity study must meet.

The disparity index in plain language

The disparity index divides utilization by availability. Availability is a group's share of the firms in the market. Utilization is that group's share of the dollars spent. If a group is 30% of firms and wins 30% of dollars, the index is 1.0, parity.

An index of 0.50 means a group wins half the work its presence in the market would predict. Across disparity studies, an index below 0.80 is treated as substantial underutilization, the same threshold used here.

Index = Utilization % ÷ Availability %
Utilization is a share of dollars from the City of Boston's open data: discretionary spending and contract awards, carrying the City's own certification flags. Availability is a share of firms, read through two lenses: Census ABS 2022 for the Boston metro (CBSA 14460) and the 2020 study's custom census. Comparing the two is the conventional construction.

Industry-cluster crosswalk

Procurement-relevant clusters are built from 2-digit NAICS sectors so availability and the spend picture line up.

ConstructionNAICS 23
Professional & Technical ServicesNAICS 54
Information TechnologyNAICS 51
Goods & CommoditiesNAICS 31-33, 42, 44-45
Other ServicesNAICS 56, 81, 48-49

Provenance

Every figure traces to a public source

These are the datasets behind the portal, each retrieved and cached to static JSON at build time. No government endpoint is called at runtime.

U.S. Census Annual Business Survey (ABS), Company Summary 2022

2026-07-28

Employer-firm counts by owner sex, ethnicity, race, and veteran status, cross-tabbed by 2022 NAICS sector and geography. Reference year 2022, released Dec 2024.

www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB220

U.S. Census Nonemployer Statistics by Demographics 2022 (NES-D)

2026-07-28

All-firm, nonemployer, and employer-firm counts and receipts by owner demographics; used for the employer-vs-all-firm availability comparison and firm-size analysis.

www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB220

City of Boston Discretionary Spending FY19-FY26 Q3 (Analyze Boston)

2026-07-28

1,064,059 payment lines, $7.54B, with the City's own MBE/WBE certification flag on every line. Certified-only shares are a floor on true MWBE participation: the 2020 study counted firms certified or not.

data.boston.gov/dataset/city-of-boston-discretionary

City of Boston Contract Award FY19-FY26 Q3 (Analyze Boston)

2026-07-28

22,054 contracts of $10,000 or more with maximum award value, department, procurement category, and the City's MBE/WBE and SLBE/SBE certification flags.

data.boston.gov/dataset/city-of-boston-contract-awar

2020 City of Boston Disparity Study (BBC Research & Consulting)

2026-07-28

The City's prior disparity study: FY2015-FY2019, 47,000+ contracts, ~800 availability surveys, RGMA of Norfolk, Suffolk, Plymouth, Middlesex, and Essex counties. Final report February 2021. All baseline availability, utilization, and disparity-index figures are BBC's, from the Executive Summary.

www.boston.gov/sites/default/files/file/2021/02/2020

City of Boston RFP EV00017483, Disparity Study Consulting Services

2026-07-28

The solicitation this preliminary analysis anticipates: Mayor's Office of Economic Opportunity and Inclusion, released June 29, 2026 under M.G.L. c. 30B; proposals due August 13, 2026 (extended from July 30).

www.boston.gov/bid-listings/ev00017483

U.S. Census cartographic county boundaries (Plotly / TIGER)

2026-07-28

County polygons for the RGMA choropleth, trimmed to the five BBC RGMA counties.

raw.githubusercontent.com/plotly/datasets/master/geo

Governing legal framework

What a constitutionally defensible study must satisfy

City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson Co.
488 U.S. 469 (1989)

Race-conscious public contracting measures face strict scrutiny. A jurisdiction must show a strong basis in evidence of identified discrimination in its own market, typically a disparity study, and must narrowly tailor any remedy. A statistical gap is the starting point, not the conclusion.

Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard
600 U.S. 181 (2023)

Not a contracting case, but it raised the scrutiny climate for every race-conscious program. Narrow tailoring, race-neutral-first sequencing, and group-specific evidence are now existential, and a record built for that climate is the only durable kind.

H.B. Rowe Co. v. Tippett
615 F.3d 233 (4th Cir. 2010)

The leading federal appellate treatment of a disparity-study record, and a case our counsel litigated. The Fourth Circuit upheld race-conscious measures only for groups where the evidence showed statistically significant disparities, and struck them down where it did not. It does not govern Massachusetts; it shows how hard a serious challenge presses.

M.G.L. c. 30B and the Sheltered Market Program
Mass. Gen. Laws c. 30B, §18

Chapter 30B is the statute this procurement runs under. Section 18 authorizes the City's Sheltered Market Program, which designates contracts for certified disadvantaged vendors. The study's evidence must be strong enough to support that instrument, and any extension of it, under strict scrutiny.

Massachusetts sits in the First Circuit, which has no modern disparity-study precedent as developed as H.B. Rowe. That is not a lighter burden; it means a Boston record must be built to the strictest reading of Croson itself. A preliminary index from public data cannot meet that bar. It can show where to look. A defensible study pairs availability and utilization with statistical significance testing, anecdotal evidence, and narrowly tailored, group-specific recommendations.

Kevin Parsons

Case-tested outside counsel

Kevin V. Parsons

Parsons served as counsel for the challenger in H.B. Rowe, so he has pressed the attack a disparity-study record must survive. For Boston, he reviews the design, preliminary findings, and proposed remedies against the strictest reading of Croson, the standard a First Circuit record must satisfy on its own evidence, then authors and signs the final defensibility opinion.

Lewis Brisbois
What this preliminary analysis cannot do
  • It uses an equal-weight public firm count, not a capacity- and willingness-adjusted availability survey.
  • Utilization comes from the City's open discretionary-spending and contract-award files, whose certification flags capture City- or state-certified firms only, so measured MWBE shares are a floor on true participation.
  • It sees prime-level spend only. Subcontractor participation is invisible to public data.
  • It has no bid or lost-contract data, so it cannot separate a supply gap from a selection gap.
  • It applies no statistical significance test and carries no anecdotal record.
  • The group-by-cluster matrix assumes uniform utilization across clusters, which a full study removes.
What public data does establish
A credible, transparent first read of the landscape: the size and composition of the supplier base, the City's own published spending and contract awards by certification status, a defensible market area (the Boston metro, CBSA 14460, and the five counties the 2020 study used: Norfolk, Suffolk, Plymouth, Middlesex, and Essex), and a directional index that points to where disparities are most likely to be found and tested.

The honest upgrade path

What the full study adds that public data cannot

This is both the limit of this portal and the work House Strategies Group would lead as the study's authors.

PhD-led custom availability survey
A weighted survey of firms that are ready, willing, and able to perform City of Boston work, re-running the custom-census approach the 2020 study fielded and replacing the equal-weight public firm count with a capacity- and willingness-adjusted denominator.
Five fiscal years of transaction data
Contract- and payment-level records for City departments and Boston Public Schools, not the public open-data extracts alone, so utilization can be measured by category, method, and dollar.
Subcontractor utilization
Lower-tier participation, which prime-level public data cannot see and which is often where disparities concentrate.
Bid and offer (lost-contract) data
The firms that competed and did not win, which separates a supply problem from a selection problem.
Qualitative corroboration
Owner interviews, public hearings, and trade-association input that give the statistics their anecdotal record.
Defensibility legal opinion
A narrowly tailored set of findings and remedies reviewed against the current constitutional standard.